tl:dr PROTECT YOUR GAINS (they are not yours if you do not keep them!!)
CLOSE IS WHAT MATTERS — EXPECT EXTREME VOLATILITY AT LEAST NEXT 24 HOURS
While indicators look like this could be just another short pullback for BTC, and altcoins look like their hodling up well (some are downright bullish-NXT), there is no guarantee that this is not the start of a MEANINGFUL ABC CORRECTION which could lead to a drop of 50% or more — likely for most of the crypto market (possibly including NXT!!) .
Today’s close will be the first big test — if we close below yesterday’s low, high prob we test lower moving avg (BTC 14750 range) and possibly much lower — STAY AWARE.
MORE DETAILS AND CHARTS
NOTE: After some huge price swings, BTC finally dropped to close slightly red, then fell sharply towards the close (near when the CME futures opened hmmmm……)– since then price has recovered to retest breakout levels as shown in chart below.
Two large altcoins (DASH, ZEC) also saw large moves up to new highs before pulling back with BTC, both DASH and ZEC as well as MOST large altcoins still have pattern targets much higher than current levels and are still looking fairly strong — especially NXT which is breaking out to new highs as we type this.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
They are doing all they can to make this market look bullish but time and patterns are indicating a slight edge to the bears.
Normally, that sentence would apply to the entire crypto market, but we’re still seeing some divergences in altcoins that say “this time COULD be different” and we could see FOR THE FIRST TIME in terms of a trend:
ALTCOINS UP / BITCOIN DOWN
Until that new trend is PROVEN (rigth now it’s BTC and altcoins same direction), If you’re trading, we think it’s best to not front run that new possibility and assume BTC will impact the altcoin market with RARE exceptions (see NXT chart below plus the stronger coins on the BTC exchange MIGHT see larger than average moves (We’re watching DGB, FCT, ARDR plus a few others)
Whatever happens, we stand by our highest prob trade (survival) strategies from our early update to
- HAVE LOTS OF CASH (50% or more of ST/IT funds) – volatility such as spikes MIGHT offer safe entries OR cash might just be the best place to be tomorrow.
- Take profits when you get them — things are likely to move fast
- Have clearly defined stop ranges and honor them
NOTE: NXT took off to about $1.05 as we wrote this post — This meets all pattern targets for NXT so watch for steep reversal by end of day if BTC drops — if not could see much higher prices for NXT and we’ll post updated trade strategies IF that happens.
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