BTC ETH TOP 10 ALTCOINS CRYPTO MARKET LONG-TERM ANALYSIS JUNE 2018

CRYPTO MARKET LONG TERM TRADING ANALYSIS

As promised, we’re excited to share our exclusive comprehensive long-term outlook for BTC, and the most important altcoins in the cryptocurrency market.

This analysis was prepared by experienced traders and investment professionals with over 40 YEARS trading experience in all types of markets (over 2 years in crypto).

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Also See Trading Notes at the end of this analysis:  

THE CHARTS: LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE CRYPTO MARKET AS OF MAY 2016 (charts include data up through June 6)

 

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CRYPTOPATTERNS JUNE CHARTBOOK

LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE CRYPTO MARKET

NOTE:  Because Bitcoin continues to have such a powerful influence on market direction and current long-term patterns are still showing a bullish direction, all altcoin analysis will be done vs BTC unless otherwise noted.  Additional analysis vs USD/USDT is advised for all cryptos traded as USD/USDT charts offer different patterns and clues and should be reviewed as part of a comprehensive trading strategy.

BITCOIN

Ticker SymbolsBTC, XBT (bitcoin futures).  Note that XBT is also used on certain exchanges for Bitcoin (same as BTC).

Market Cap Rank –  #1 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – Bullish

Current Long-term Outlook – More Bullish than a month ago overall but not as bullish vs multiple key altcoins.

AnalysisWeekly Chart on XBT Futures shows indicator very oversold, setting up for at least a significant bounce in the intermediate term, though price can drop to test $5000 level before that bounce occurs.  Current set up indicates moderate probability that $7250 will hodl and we’ll see bounce from that level.  Monthly chart continues to support bullish wave pattern and all time highs being retested in the long term time horizon (think months at least until we see confirmed breakout over $12000.)

xbt weekly early 6 4btc monthly 6 4

ETHEREUM

Ticker Symbol – ETH

Market Cap Rank – #2 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – Bullish overall but Bearish relative to BTC

Current Long-term Outlook Far more bullish than a month ago. 

Analysis – Breakout of current weekly pattern could make ETH more bullish than BTC.   Breakdown of this pattern could lead to significantly lower prices. Current monthly chart shows mixed signals and uncertainty.  Key support and resistance levels should be watched very closely.  Patterns and news about EOS are likely to play a major role in ETH’s price and volume action in the coming weeks and months.

ETHBTC weekly 6 5eth monthly 6 5

 RIPPLE

Ticker Symbol – XRP

Market Cap Rank – #3 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – Bullish overall but Bearish relative to BTC

Current Long-term Outlook – Still bullish but lagging other large altcoins and growing red flags.

Analysis – Because of its relatively low price, XRP has always been more volatile than other large altcoins.  Traders should expect more “head fakes” and broken patterns that could require smaller positions or “reentry trades” for intermediate and long term positions.  Because of differences between XRP and BTC patterns, it’s important to watch long term charts to verify wave count as crypto market moves through upcoming waves.

XRP weekly 6 5XRP monthly 6 5

BITCOIN CASH

Ticker Symbol(s) – BCH, BCC

Market Cap Rank – #4 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs Bitcoin

Analysis – BCH has generally bullish signs on long-term time frames with minimal red flags.  Low recent volume makes all indicators a bit less reliable but the lower volume is market wide and not exclusive to BCH.  If BCH doesn’t break out of pattern towards bull targets soon (weeks), probabilities favor a drop to test the lower support of bull flag pattern which would give a short/intermediate term edge to BTC over BCH but would not change the LT overall bull outlook for BCH.

BCHBTC weekly 6 5bch monthly 6 5

EOS

Ticker Symbol – EOS

Market Cap Rank – #5 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs Bitcoin

Analysis – Charts show market expectations for EOS potential.  We’re now at a critical time for EOS where news meets charts.  Mainnet went live on June 1, sort of, and has created confusion and uncertainty.  While there is a case to be made for strong upside for EOS intermediate-term and long-term, sometimes the lower probability path wins and problems with EOS mainnet could turn charts bearish very quickly.  In any case, EOS is now in a high risk phase of its wave cycle, so expect increased volatility and challenging trade set ups until EOS real world use is proven to be on track (or not).

EOSBTC weekly 6 6EOS monthly 6 6

LITECOIN

Ticker Symbol – LTC

Market Cap Rank – #6 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs BTC but see analysis below for caveat

Analysis – Volume has dropped off drastically in 2018, so any decisions based on recent bars warrants increased caution.  Upside targets can be found significantly higher, but we are staying with the opinion that the highest probability pattern scenario has LTC/USD testing most recent crash lows ($100 range) before it will test all time highs.  Note that almost all the volume for LTC has been below current price levels, which does not support the most bullish path.

LTC weekly 6 5

LTC monthly 6 5

STELLAR LUMENS

Ticker Symbol – STR, XLM

Market Cap Rank – #7

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs BTC

Analysis – Mini bull flag that started in late March sits inside the larger bull flag indicated on the weekly chart below which started in November of 2017.  Relative volume is lower on the pullback in both cases, so there is a moderate to high probability of bullish pattern confirming (breakout).  As always, keep a sharp eye on the volume if XLM moves to retest the highs of the flags.  Decent support can be expected at the round number .00003000.  Also worth paying attention to price and volume action compared to Ripple (XRP) which has had a very strong correlation since XLM began trading but now some subtle differences in long-term patterns have emerged.

xlm weekly 6 5xlm monthly 6 5

CARDANO

Ticker Symbol – ADA

Market Cap Rank – #8 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs BTC

Analysis – Recent bull flag shows potential for a move higher as volume fell on the retracement and we saw a larger volume green bar on the last bar of the month.  Target on this bull flag is in the .000060 range and much higher targets can be derived from the longer term bull flag which started in December on 2017.  The larger pattern is still valid, despite the roughly 75% retracement from January to March.  Bullish path would expect to see a strong move with high volume through the top of the current bull flag around .000040 in order to make pattern targets moderate to high probability.  Note that most of the volume bars on up days are larger than on down days, regardless of time frame, which is a bullish indicator.

ADA WEEKLY 6 7

ADA monthly 6 7

IOTA

Ticker Symbol – IOTA

Market Cap Rank – #9 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs BTC

Analysis – Another crypto which had minimal volume during the early 2018 decline when apparently no one was willing to buy anything at any price while crypto prices were tumbling.  Volume has now increased slightly as IOTA has recouped some of its losses, but a better indicator of new all time highs long-term would be a strong increase in volume if and when we test current highs confirming buyers are willing to step in and take price higher vs BTC.

iota weekly 6 18IOTA monthly 6 18

 

TRON

Ticker Symbol – TRX

Market Cap Rank – #10 

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Neutral vs BTC

Analysis – Tron is one of the most controversial among the larger cap Altcoins and trades for a very low price, so expect continued volatility around this name.  The launch of their mainnet will likely add to the volatility, similar to EOS.  The patterns for TRX suggest we could go either way – and could move a great distance in either direction, with support levels not proven due to Tron’s short history, so a fast drop could fall a long way if it comes with high volume.  Traders need to take this into account when determining position size in Tron.

trx weekly 6 6trx monthly 6 6

 

…AND A COUPLE OUTSIDE THE TOP 10 WE’RE WATCHING

 

VECHAIN

Ticker Symbol – VEN

Market Cap Rank – #16

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs BTC

Analysis – VEN has a very bullish chart and is getting a lot of social media buzz due to its recently issued a new white paper and roadmap.  Price is right at breakout levels on weekly chart which offers a test of the current strength in the coming weeks.  It’s important to see strong volume If we breakout to maintain a high probability of reaching the high targets patterns call for. Now that VEN has more history behind it watch to see if it can maintain the impressive strength vs BTC it has shown so far, or if that’s simply short term traders trying to make fast money on another big bull move.

ven weekly 6 6ven monthly 6 6

 

MAIDSAFE COIN

Ticker Symbol – MAID

Market Cap Rank – #70

Long-term Outlook From Prior Post – First long term analysis

Current Long-term Outlook – Bullish vs BTC

Analysis – MAID is showing multiple bullish patterns on multiple time frames, however, as the long-term charts below show, the bullishness is a very recent development as MAID has been all but forgotten in the ICO craze.  Because of the smaller market cap and low volumes, MAID needs to prove its bullishness by breaking out with convincing volume AND meeting or exceeding targets or it will be higher probability for you to look to other, more proven bullish altcoins with similar high probability set ups.  It’s also worth nothing that the only major exchange MAID currently trades on is Poloniex, so watch for a possible “new exchange bump” at some point in the coming weeks or months for MAID if their new and improved platform stands up to testing and market scrutiny.

maid weekly 6 6maid monthly 6 6

IMPORTANT TRADING NOTES:

  • LT trading strategy should involve IT and ST trade execution — do not trade the following information without confirmation from shorter term time frames (or WAIT for that confirmation!)
  • Just because BTC is currently the most bullish LT — it’s not SAFE to trade 100% of your LT funds in BTC — they can change the set ups at any time (and probably will!) — but probabilities do say that BTC should play an important role in your LT crypto portfolio.
  • Financial management is every bit as important as bullish patterns to SAFE trading — the charts below show just how far price can fall and still be bullish LT and this should be carefully considered in how much of your funds you dedicate to long term vs Short-term and Intermediate term if you want to avoid huge swings in your total portfolio balance.
  • Click on the LONG TERM CRYPTO ANALYSIS POSTS for prior updates

 

This site is for educational and entertainment purposes only and not in any way intended to be investment or trading advice.  You are 100% responsible for your financial decisions at all times.  It is highly recommended you DO NOT  make any investment or trading decisions depending upon what you read on this blog/newsletter!  All information presented (c) 2018 JBP cons, inc.  All rights reserved

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