Monday June 13, 2016 7:30 PM
As noted a couple of posts ago was a moderate probability, ETH shot right up into my target range, currently trading around 17.70.
I sold 10% of my remaining position (so I now am holding 40% of core position) for a gain of over 70% after holding just over a month.
The volume and price on both ETH and BTC continue to look very bullish but some indicators are showing a pullback becoming more probable.
I won’t reduce my position further until closer to $20 which I now expect on this move before a meaningful puillback. However, I wouldn’t count on anything at this point–there’s really no edge for a big move up or down at this point.
With that said, the behavior of ETH continues to show signs of longer term upside with higher targets starting to come into focus. The issue as always is what path price will take to get there–for that we wait for patterns to guide us.
Monday June 13, 2016 6:20 AM
A huge spike upward in price combined with massive volume.should not be ignored and that’s exactly what happened yesterday for both BTC and ETH.
I closed out my small position in BTC because it hit and exceeded my target of 665 (I determined an adjusted target of 682 when it hit 665 and that’s where I sold the rest).
The gain on this last piece was nearly 40% with a holding period of a couple of weeks.
Of course I wish my position was larger, but truth is the patterns foretold a pullback before this meteoric rise so I simply got lucky to be long to begin with.
As for ETH, the target of 17.50-20 is now clearly in sight. ETH destroyed a high probability pattern for a pullback, which has to be viewed as extremely bullish.
This is the first signal to confirm my longer term patterns with a much higher price target. I want to see how the next couple of days play out and I’ll share that target well above $20.
As for shorting BTC, a pullback is now sure to come, but from what price is the key question. It’s not a high probability trade to get in front of a freight train which is the pattern BTC is on as we speak. In fact, its an extremely low probability trade, no matter how overbought BTC is. A day like yesterday makes me lose interest in trying to short BTC at all, it’s simply not worth the risk.
I will be looking for opportunities to add to my ETH position again (currently still at 50% of my core position), but I need more than a strong bullish day (though that certainly will keep me holding my current ETH position!). I need a quality pattern to rely on.
Sunday June 12, 2016 9:15 AM
ETH appears to be breaking out this morning on huge volume and price is at $15.15.
I continue to hold 50% of my core position as the patterns over the last few days showed a big move but with more liklihood of a downward result. Now an upward result appears to be beginning. You can never predict with 100% certainty. Just play the probabilities.
I will be watching closely from here to decide if I should further reduce my position. I will not tolerate a lot of downside here. On the other hand if price and volume continue to provide a strong confirmation of this upmove I might add back some of my core position. You never want to chase an investment but if the indicators and patterns show significant upside, you also don’t want to be afraid to take advantage of it.
I have absolutely no regrets selling what I’ve sold so far, and would not be the least bit surprised if we see a reversal soon on ETH.
That said, the target has always been 17.50-20.00 and it may go straight up to that target from here.
Time toavoid hasty decisions. Better to watch and react when the patterns and indicators give clear guidance.
Saturday June 11, 2016 11:00 PM
Sold rest of additional 50% position avg price of $14.10 total gain approx 5% after about a week of holding position.
Sold 50% of my core position at avg price of around $14.00. Total gain approx 40% after about 1 month of holding position.
Bitcoin met and exceeded my target of $625 — sold another 30% of my very small position — still holding 50% with target of $665. Gain of approx 25% with about 1 month holding position. Again don’t give me any real credit for nice BTC gains–They were largely due to converting to BTC in order to purchase ETH that never got invested in ETH.
Moderate probability I will sell down to 25% of my core position in ETH, as I still see patterns which are more likely down than up in the near term.
I will almost surely sell the rest of my BTC position soon and will considering shorting BTC if I get a pattern that creates a very strong probability and a clear exit strategy if that pattern doesn’t play out.
Thursday June 9, 2016 10:00 PM
I recently built about 150% of my core position in ETH at an average price of around 13.75. I have begun selling the entire additional 50% position (phasing out in several lots) at an average price of $14.30 this evening.
I’ll wait till tomorrow when volumes pick up to determine when to sell the rest of the additional 50% position and I’ll drop back to my core position for now.
The pattern for more upside is taking too long and this increases the probability for more downside so it makes sense to reduce my holdings and watch for further patterns to develop.
I’d say there’s now a 50/50 chance I will exit a significant portion of my core position as well, but, I’d like a more clear bearish pattern before I reduce my holdings any further.
Emotionally, I’d really like to stay 150% or more invested in ETH as I see great long term upside–but I want to trade based on the probabilities provided by the patterns, not what I think should happen. I will certainly look to readd but it will take a clear pattern to do so.
I am making a decent profit on the sale of my recent additions of ETH considering I’ve only held them a week or two, but it would be the right thing to sell at a loss if I had to as I’m trying to respect probabilities, and right now, downside for ETH becomes more likely every day.
Patterns still suggest probabilities are in favor of BTC over $600 before falling below $550 (currently at $573) but I am selling ETH back into US $ as I feel BTC is too far in its latest upward cycle to chase additional upside at this time–I will reevaluate BTC if and when a pull back occurs.
Nothing new to report on The DAO, it moved up a bit in relation to ETH but is still lagging and not showing any volatility at this point.
June 7, 2016 8:30 PM
As the patterns predicted, ETH has broken out of its recent range to the upside and is currently at $14.75 just below the recent high of $14.79.
I’m currently very focused on the big picture to help me make decisions in the near term at what could be an important juncture.. If we’re truly in a bullish cycle for ETH, I’d like to see this move up to the target of $17.50-20 without much downside.
If not, I have to treat this move like a headfake and plan for more downside, with a possibility of testing the recent lows in the $8 range.
Have not changed any positions at this point, but the probabilities are increasing that it will be a good time to do so whichever way ETH goes.
As for BTC — still showing strength overall and patterns suggest $600+ before going below $550. I continue to hold an 80% position which is a very small as part of my overall investment in cryptocurrencies.
The DAO has been struggling to keep up with ETH, and has not shown much volatility at all. Without a history of patterns to rely on, and with many questions surrounding The DAO, I am not pursuing a position at this time, though I think news on the DAO will create volatility in the forseeable future.
I continue to look for consistent correlations among ETH BTC and The DAO, but nothing has provided much to rely on at this point. I think they will emerge over time and can help make trading decisions.
Monday June 6, 6:00 AM
The pattern on ETH that calls for more upside before any significant correction is still intact as is the continued upside of BTC.
However, the time for these patterns to reach their targets is shortening and the probabilities of meeting these targets will lessen. I’ll adjust positions accordingly.
Also for the first half of this week, Ill be watching closely to see what impact, if any, weekend trading has on patterns I’ve relied on in the past where there is little to no weekend trading.