NOTE: This post COULD be so easy — we could just write
We told you we are committing to PROTECTING YOUR GAINS — BTC has broken key support — go to cash for positions (BTC and Altcoins) all but your strongest LT positions.
Unfortunately, it’s just not that easy — there’s ALWAYS a bullish and bearish case, and as the BTC chart below shows the last time we broke key support on a reversal pattern, it was a headfake and CLOSE was well within the pattern and we’ve seen HUGE gains since that headfake just over a week ago.
Will today’s move be another headfake? Probabilities (multiple patterns and indicators) say this move down for BTC is REAL and will drop to test the lower moving average ($15,000 range) AT LEAST — of course they could go much lower.
So the edge is to the bears – but BTC has defeated probabilities SO many times during 2017 and there are still some bullish indicators in play — so we can’t GUARANTEE that BTC won’t explode higher and blow past $20,000.
And then the million dollar question: What about altcoins? If BTC drops, do altcoins go down with BTC or will something else happen this time around?
WHAT PROBABILITIES SAY TO DO NOW
Anything is possible, and it has been costly to bet against THE KING, but there are two reasons to scale back to your strongest LT positions and/or set very tight trail stops for ST/IT positions and honor them immediately.
Probabilities have been on our side, so let’s trust them
Our patterns and indicators have been very dialed in since early November. This means the highest prob path has been happening for the most part — best to ride the high prob path until we see lots of divergences (like we did when BTC UP/ALTCOINS down 3-4 months ago)
We set a clear objective to PRESERVE GAINS after our amazing November — so let’s do that.
We can always reenter at HIGHER prices if we move straight up from here (in fact, you did a bunch of that yesterday if you took THE SAFEST TRADES EVER) but at the least there is no trading edge to be long BTC or altcoins currently so why push our luck?
BTC and Alts are moving up nicely as we post this — we get the FOMO of missing out on another 20-50% gain (like REP had for us yesterday) — but if you’re in this for the long haul — maybe it’s time to let others make (or lose) big money??
If you disagree, that’s okay–you have to trade your plan and 2017 has shown hodling through scares to be a good plan — just know it’s not SAFE trading because probabilities are not on your side.
4 CHARTS — INDICATORS TO WATCH
note: while the price action on ARDR is bullish – -the volume is bullSHIT – red flag that supports the bearish case — NXT has huge volume consistently now–why not ARDR??
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