Daily Market Update – Early

BTC XBT ETH crypto market early updates June 20 2018 10:00 AM EST

NOTE: Patterns shared over the last several day’s updates are all on track and still in play.

Now we have BTC recovering well from spike down right after close yesterday on what looks like it will be higher volume on XBT so close today could be a strong indicator BTC is ready to test key $7250 range.

Reread that — BTC is ready to move up. Altcoins have not proven they are going to move with BTC yet and that’s a major red flag.

Hopefully we’re just paranoid (as all good SAFE traders should be) and altcoins explode higher — as the ETH chart we prepared yesterday shows — ETH and other key altcoins were a good tell that the move down for BTC was a headfake ($6450 key level was also helpful to “stay in the trade” or add).

But as the biggest gain chart below shows — the major altcoins are nowhere to be seen vs BTC so far today — If you’re new to crypto — just know

BTC UP ALTCOINS DOWN has happened before — and it can be deadly and we need to stay alert for it.

We’ll be watching and updating as needed.

3 CHARTS — ALTCOINS GETTING HAMMERED VS BTC?

large altcoins 6 20 early eth market wrap 6 19

showing yesterday’s XBT chart for reference — looking like strong reversal with volume so far today but of course CLOSE IS WHAT MATTERS.

xbt early 6 19

This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only and not in any way intended to be investment or trading advice. You are 100% responsible for your financial decisions at all times. It is highly recommended you DO NOT make any investment or trading decisions depending upon what you read on this blog/newsletter! All information presented (c) 2018 JBP cons, inc. All rights reserved.

BTC XBT ETH crypto market early updates June 19, 2018 9:15 AM EST

NOTE: Our ETHUSD indicator is confirming and still in play but XBT futures (chart shown below) show that close today is important as a solid up day with higher volume would pave the way for more upside (test of $7250 or more), and a reversal could lead to breaking $6450, $6000 and even a possible test of $5000.

The highest probability takeaways for the current set up are:

Have VERY realistic expectations for any bullish moves — taking profits or trailing stops have to be the strongest approach for now based on the last 2 months of price action. When the time is right to be more aggressive, the market will show us
Have VERY clear trading plans and don’t stay in trades if your stop ranges are hit — even though it’s possible we’re in “summer trading” you can still lose a LOT of money and get shaken out on a low volume move down to $5000 or lower.

Now more than ever STAY SAFE, and STAY IN THE GAME.

2 CHARTS — The Big 2 are representing the crypto market for now….

NOTE: Market moving very much in sync so trades can be developed for more altcoins with similar patterns. See prior posts for many set ups and/or write us at cryptopatterns@gmail.com with questions

xbt early 6 19

Yesterday’s ETH post still in play — above $550 next target is $600 range which is strong resistance. Above that could see strong move higher to $750 range but let’s see $600 first — respect “character of current market”!

eth real time udpate 6 18

BTC EOS ETH crypto market early updates June 16, 2018 9:30 AM EST

NOTE: XBT closed with the bearish “higher high” reversal pattern which usually brings more downside — however XBT will not trade for the next 2 days.

Meanwhile ETH’s clock continues to tick as we’re now on day 4 of a reversal pattern which is the highest prob day for a move up to test the moving averages.

We show yesterday’s charts again as they are all still very much in play including trading and stop ranges.

We add EOS’ chart to show that key altcoin is now near key levels as well and high prob will be an indicator for the broader altcoin market.

As noted yesterday, even if we take the bearish path here and drop down to test the 2018 lows for BTC, probabiliteis say it’s an IT/LT opportunity to scale in SLOWLY as it’s high prob (not guaranteed but high prob!) we’ll see the $7250 level again and possibly much higher at some point in the intermediate term

eth early 6 15 xbt early june 15 btc real time 6 14 eos early 6 16

BTC XBT ETH crypto market early updates June 15, 2018 9:30 EST

NOTE: The line in the sand continues to be $6450 BTC. We broke it 2 days ago but recovered with a solid up day yesterday (could not “follow through” with lower prices).

Now we have a chance for a BULLISH follow through which would high prob lead to a test of key $7250 level, but if we close below $6450 the edge returns to the bears as they get the ball back for another chance to follow through and test the 2018 lows.

CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Charts below show the current set up for both BTC and altcoins (ETH chart good representation).

2 CHARTS — TUG OF WAR

TAKEAWAYS:

ST NO TRADING EDGE

IT SLIGHT EDGE TO BULLS (would only use SCALING trades as prices can go much lower

LT EDGE TO BULLS

NOTE: BTC chart (not shown) same set up as XBT daily chart shown here.

xbt early june 15

eth early 6 15

BTC XBT EOS ONT early updates June 12, 2018 9:20 AM EST

NOTE: Price action still supports a focus on BTC as market continues to move in response to BTC.

Short Term/ Intermediate Term trading – Sidelines is a fine place to be but the fact remains there are very clearly defines stop ranges that can be used as entries with very low risk — just know the probabiltiies for any ST/IT trade are moderate probability at best. Chart below shows VERY current set up.

Long Term — We still have weekly futures chart at bottom of oversold channel — this will move up at some point and is support for AT LEAST the LT bullish case for BTC.

OTHER FACTORS (not as important as BTC chart)

MAJOR ALTCOINS — Moving with BTC though EOS continues to hodl bullish pattern shown yesterday — if that breaks down and closes under $10 range = fiat for EOS and likely altcoin market ST and possibly IT is safest place to be until we see a new bullish set up.

NEWER ALTCOINS — In response to a special chart request, we show the chart basics of ONT below which is a recent ICO through the NEO platform and has had a very bullish chart (different from most large altcoins) — as you can see there are a number of red flags that say ONT can be traded safely using the channel shown, but highest prob would be to wait for a confirmed breakout with higher volume.

4 CHARTS — DEFINE ALL TRADES — VERY HIGH RISK SET UP IF WE BREAK SUPPORT

NOTE: BTC chart should start by saying — BTC did not make a “higher high” so far today…. Also note bull case needs to see price above $7000 (ideally $7250) today or probabilities become high prob for bears and stops should be tightended or ST/IT positions should be reduced/scaled out.

btc early 6 13 xbt weekly early 6 4 EOS EARLY 6 11 ONT early video 6 13

BTC XBT EOS crypto market early updates June 11, 2018 9:30 AM EST

Wave 2 pic

NOTE: Many notes between charts below — good day to study!

Just how bearish are you feeling about the crypto market after yesterday’s blood bath? Probabilities say you probably should feel bearish BUT they don’t just give money away in crypto trading, so…..

We think it’s worth reading about Wave 2 and Wave 3 above and then study our charts and think about what SAFE trading really means for long term success…Also maybe a good day to reread our educational WAVES post?

CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Continuing our list of key trading crypto concepts from yesterday:

When a market crashes highest probability is “there is no place to hide”

That’s exactly what happened yesterday — plus nearly every other pattern and indicator you study has to lead you to the conclusion that the move down yesterday was a REAL move and not a headfake.

HOWEVER — here are a few questions we are asking that COULD change that analysis:

1) Why didn’t they take out the lows and create pattern AND wave failure below the $6000 range for BTC?

2) Why didn’t they even take out the recent lows at $6425 making new 2018 lows high prob??

3) Why is the bullish pattern still valid for EOSUSD on the Kraken chart when BTC and the large altcoins all showed pattern failure yesterday?

The bearish case answer to these interesting questions is easy:

We’re saving more crash destruction for today so everyone can watch their account balances plummet.

That’s a damn good answer, and it’s the highest prob outcome given the current set up, meaning questions 1-3 above will all be resolved with more downside.

BUT — as we’ve said before — this is where the money is made (and lost) — and while we might be headed much lower we are again set up with a SAFE trade opportunity with very high upside that you need to study and determine if it fits your SAFE trade strategy.

JUST KNOW — this SAFE trade becomes extremely DANGEROUS (as in blow out account dangerous) if you can’t or won’t honor your stops

4 CHARTS — LINES IN THE SAND FOR THE KING AND THE MOST WATCHED ALTCOIN

BTC – shows wave set up and clear stop levels — highest prob is <$6250 more agressive <$5750 — below that $5000 and lower becomes mod/high prob

ST/IT TRADE STRATEGY = Enter on dips — PICK STOP AND HONOR THE HELL OUT OF IT highest prob or aggressive stop

btc early 6 11 XBT early 6 11 xbt weekly early 6 4

NOTE: We’re using Kraken EOSUSD due to recent unique volume patterns and otehr reasons. However, it’s also worth noting EOSBTC (binance) has same bull pattern still in tact AND has a set up for a bullish lower low reversal if we close above yesterday’s low today. This is currently only a moderate prob trade but well worth studying even if you don’t trade it.

Also: Watch ETH if EOS breaks down — so far ETH has just moved with BTC as usual, but ETH MIGHT be a winner if EOS is a loser — at least worth watching…..

EOS EARLY 6 11

BTC XBT EOS crypto market early updates June 10, 2018 10 AM EST

NOTE: The current market set up brings up several concepts we often repeat:

Part of a good ST/IT trade strategy should consider market “character”
Bullish patterns fail in bear markets
Close is what matters and of course
They can take price wherever they want AT ANY TIME

#1 is the one we’re focused on right now — The crypto market is showing a completely different price action and volume character than in the past — as we’ve noted you’ve got zillions of new huge investors and traders now trading crypto but lately volumes are much LOWER? A huge move that gets social media all worked up is BTC $7500 down to $7250? No daily altcoin up 50% or more moon shot?

What does this change of market character mean? Long term subs know our answer — it means SOMETHING — and at the least it should make traders more conservative and defensive. Which leads to one more concept we are dusting off that we used to say all the time (until we got the answer probabiltiies said we would last december/january)

ARE WE IN A LONG TERM BULL MARKET FOR CRYPTOS OR NOT?

If you study the current long term charts — click on link for LONG TERM ANALYSIS our JUNE CHARTBOOK we shared last week and if you read the latest news — for BTC and most key altcoins the answer is YES.

But just like twitter took over a year to meet our pattern targets around $40 (we posted update last week–see Stocks link) — THEY have endless money and can play games for longer than you can imagine — and even then higher prices are NEVER guaranteed.

BOTTOM LINE TAKEAWAY? Of course it’s another trading concept we say more than often than any other

STAY SAFE — THIS WILL ALLOW YOU TO STAY IN THE GAME (profitably per current patterns!)

Current Market Conditions

The patterns are still very bullish for EOS at least IT/LT, but the only chart worth really watching is BTC — while they have changed the market character for price and volume action, one thing is still crystal clear:

BTC is THE KING and the market still moves with it — until it doesn’t.

4 CHARTS — 3 BTC/XBT and EOS — Watch them no matter what you trade/hodl.

NOTE: the two XBT charts are from recent posts and still in play

btc early 6 10 xbt early 6 8

NOTE: Daily XBT indicator is not nearly as oversold as weekly (closer to overbought!) so could see strong drop before reversal — this supports honoring stop loss ranges — defining intraday stops and watching for reentry set ups.

xbt early 6 7

EOS early 6 10

This site is for educational and entertainment purposes only and not in any way intended to be investment or trading advice. You are 100% responsible for your financial decisions at all times. It is highly recommended you DO NOT make any investment or trading decisions depending upon what you read on this blog/newsletter! All information presented (c) 2018 JBP cons, inc. All rights reserved