NOTE: For a market that continues to move in sync, we now have a set up where BTC and the largest altcoin ETH are now sending the same message — As the charts below show that message is
EDGE TO BEARS
That’s what the probabilities say but we say “prove it”. Why?
Here are a few additional points to consider:
- The entire move down from 10,000 is on low relative volume — not exactly BTC hodlers “rushing for the exits” which is what BTC’s volume pattern has looked like in prior crashes. That could change with a drop below the key $5000 level, but so far we’ve traded between $6000 and $10000 for months…
- The current pattern (pennant) is called a “continuation pattern”. The highest prob path is to confirm quickly. As of now we’re just seeing a tighter and tighter pennant (triangle) form. If bears are still in control, they should take this down with volume soon.
- Indicators are starting to favor the bulls –– bears are running out of TIME — this would mean at least a bounce with a high prob test of $7250 if bears can’t tank the market.
AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY — A NEW CONSIDERATION
4. SUMMER TRADING If we’re seeing wall street and hedge fund trading patterns entering the crypto market (XBT futures say we are), the summer trading pattern is generally much lower volume with a lot of headfakes and very little real movememt over time. September and particularly OCTOBER are the months where volume and REAL big moves resume.
Guess THEY like to take the kids out in their yachts and lambos during summer break….
It’s too early to tell if “summer trading patterns” are what’s going in crypto right now but at least keep it in mind because they can take price all over the place at any time. Even moves breaking key levels doesn’t necessarily mean they’re confirmed tradeable moves.
2 CHARTS — THE BIG 2 SAY BEARS HAVE THE BALL – BUT TIME RUNNING OUT
NOTE: We reviewed the XBT futures chart and it currently does not add anything new to the following update — of course we’ll keep watching…..
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