NOTE: Today brough the move up for BTC and most altcoins that was essentially a “stick save” to avoid another crash (for now). If you review recent posts you’ll see that SHORT TERM/INTERMEDIATE TERM:
- BTC still leads the way
- ETH has the most bullish set up – but has underperformed recently
- STR/XLM has the most strength of any altcoin
We’ll review the ST/IT charts and plan to post any mod/high prob trade set ups worth considering in real time updates or early updates tomorrow.
We feel there will be many opportunities to “catch the bus” if this is THE BOTTOM, so instead of ST trades, the following LT update is worth sharing in our market wrap today to help you get a feel for the “Big Picture” for the crypto market.
CRYPTO MARKET LONG TERM TRADING ANALYSIS
tl:dr — the following charts offer a variety of key patterns indicators and targets that can help you adjust (or build) your LONG – TERM trading strategy. If you’re serious about long-term success in trading or investing in crypto, we encourage you to study them carefully and welcome your questions or additional requests — just email us at
BOTTOM LINE CURRENT LT CONCLUSIONS BASED ON CHARTS BELOW:
- BTC currently has a strong bullish long-term edge to large Altcoins
- BTC might be at a LT bottom, but there are many signals that say lower prices are moderate probability.
- ETH and XRP must both be watched carefully as they are approaching critical areas of support that must hodl for their LT bullish case to stay in tact.
- LTC and XMR (charts not shown) are the “next in line” large altcoins to watch as they have not yet made new crash lows while all others have.
- SPECULATION: The weakness in large altcoins vs BTC is a moderate prob indicator to watch that some (possibly most) will NOT move up “in sync” with BTC and “winner” altcoins LT. Currently no large altcoin charts are showing they will ultimately keep pace with BTC LT, but we think that can and will change.
- SPECULATION: Reliable patterns and indicators have not worked consistently for several weeks, and we think this is a signal we’re still in a bearish wave as well as a “headfake” to get investors and traders to get shaken out of the LT Bull market (at least for BTC)
KEY ASSUMPTIONS (BASED ON OVER 2 YEARS OF MARKET HISTORY)
- Bitcoin is the KING of cryptos – BTC drives the crypto market
- ETH is the QUEEN of cryptos and is the most important altcoin in terms of technical analysis — in other words — it’s not high prob to bet on a LT large altcoin without careful consideration of the LT charts for ETH and how ETH might effect the price of any altcoin you trade. Therefore ETH is our primary focus on altcoin charts.
- The large altcoin market LT analysis is more reliable than small lower volume altcoins–therefore ALL long term trading decisions for ANY crypto should consider BTC and the large altcoin market.
RED FLAGS FOR THIS LT ANALYSIS
— The huge increase in experienced traders, whales, bots and hedge funds over the last 3 months can lead to changes to fundamental patterns and conclusions in the charts shown below at any time. “THEY know what we know” and THEY can change the rules at any time, however, history supports high probability fundamental technical analysis and trading is still the safest approach to follow.
–We are at the mercy of data provided by exchanges that are not closely regulated. The conclusions above can only be as good as the data available.
— LT trading strategy should involve IT and ST trade execution — do not trade the following information without confirmation from shorter term time frames (or WAIT for that confirmation!)
Final trading notes:
- Just because BTC is currently the most bullish LT — it’s not SAFE to trade 100% of your LT funds in BTC — they can change the set ups at any time (and probably will!) — but probabilities do say that BTC should play an important role in your LT crypto portfolio.
- Financial management is every bit as important as bullish patterns to SAFE trading — the charts below show just how far price can fall and still be bullish LT and this should be carefully considered in how much of your funds you dedicate to long term vs Short-term and Intermediate term if you want to avoid huge swings in your total portfolio balance.
MULTIPLE WEEKLY CHARTS — THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE CRYPTO MARKET
This site is for educational and entertainment purposes only and not in any way intended to be investment or trading advice. You are 100% responsible for your financial decisions at all times. It is highly recommended you DO NOT make any investment or trading decisions depending upon what you read on this blog/newsletter! All information presented (c) 2018 JBP cons, inc. All rights reserved.