Tuesday July 26, 2016 6:00 AM
My real time tweets told you the story, but here it is all at once. Start with this tweet from Sunday night:
It fits my story perfectly that retweet’s info is “unavailable”. What it said was that if ETC catches on it could take ETH to zero unless they hardforked again. Why’d they pull that tweet? hmmmm……
Story time: Building the criminal case
I trade with a absolute belief in the premise:
Your trading against criminals with more info and money than you so you better learn to think like one.
I like to have a criminal story I believe in to support my pattern trading. This is why I actually went looking for others who saw what I saw like that retweet above. When I first learned about ETC I asked myself,
“what story could make sense for the criminals to issue an insane amount of free ETC and throw the world of ETH into chaos?”
The answer that made way too much sense went something like this:
They couldn’t stop the DAO bagholders from getting their money back, but they could get them to lose it all again with no one to save them by taking ETH to zero focusing on “ETH Bailout vs ETH righteous!”
I’m not a good enough criminal to know the exact workings of how they set it up (attacker makes a deal with Poloniex?) but I knew from the “they’ll never bail out the banks!” days that the concept of taking money from disbelieving investors is a great way to transfer tons of wealth.
Plus this criminal enterprise had a huge bonus. Self-righteous millenials get to manipulate an unregulated market to make huge amounts of ill gotten errrrr….Responsible curators of the blockchain get to make the world a better place by proving decentralization and immutability beats hardforks! The perfect crime!!
I’m sure I got some of that wrong but it was enough for me to to know. I’d be looking for patterns to sell ETH and buy ETC during Monday’s trading day. And the patterns for ETC told me my story
Back to patterns
I am not an expert in how cryptocurrency works, but would like to think I am one in the world of pattern analysis. Two patterns in particular had already raised the red flag that something was up in the world of Ethereum before I knew about ETC.
First there was this one that I wrote about extensively in my last two days blog posts:
This has the appearance of a very bullish pattern until sunday when the pattern called for a reversal to a green day but ETH never reversed and closed near the lows. That’s a low probability close which had me wondering why.
Then there was/is this pattern that honestly scared (scares) the living shit out of me:
This is an incredibly bearish pattern that actually suggests ETH could go to ZERO unless it skyrockets to new highs – that’s what I was hoping for when I went huge long ETH a few days back.
The thought of ETH going to zero seemed crazy when I first saw it weeks ago, but I’ve learned nothing is crazy in the world of trading. The big down day Sunday, and this nightmare end of the world pattern showing up on multiple timelines, plus good old ETC all but insured that ETH was not skyrocketing to new highs, so as I wrote in my blog / twitter yesterday, it was time to start selling ETH and looking to buy ETC.
Trading your plan: Easier said than done
My tweets from the last 24 hours tell the rest of the story (though the story of ETC and ETH is far from over and that bearish pattern on ETH is still very much in play)
Should have made 600%? 1000%? More?
As I wrote this post ETC continued to skyrocket all the way up to .0047 which would have been a 600% gain had I held just another hour. Guess I blew it only making 250%, right?
That’s what the criminals want you to think.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.