Sunday July 24, 2016 7:00 AM
Well, it’s been quite a morning. Wake up to see ETH behaving exactly as patterns predicted in my post yesterday. Indicators were slightly mixed but still good edge to buy.
So I bought.
Then I check around and see there is once again controversy in the world of ETH. One of the exchanges has apparently created a separate class of ethereum with the symbol ETC (classic?) that represents the ETH held before the hardfork. This means the hacker can cash out of his ETC for a profit, and those who are loyal to the original ETH can trade that market in the hopes it will be the ultimate winner.
If you ask me, this means little to ETH’s future, but I’d be guessing, and I try not to do that–so let me tell you what I do know:
- The only trading mistake I made here was not scanning the news before acting to see if I could buy at even better prices —news matters but I would still buy unless hacking or something huge.
- Crap like today’s news will always be part of trading anything. This is why I rely on patterns above all else. There will never be a 100% clear and easy decision to make.
- Everything in trading is probabilities, there are no certainties (there, I said it again)
- I just trade patterns and the patterns are clear that ETH should reverse today if we are on a truly bullish leg–this means it’s an excellent time to BUY if you have a cleaer exit plan.
- I have a clear exit plan — likely sell under $12 after checking the indicators – but odds would be against bullish case if we close under 12. Tight stops if we don’t close green today and are above $12. So risk is well managed.
- Situations where patterns over a few days can guide your trade are rare opportunities where risk of a controlled loss is justified.
BOTTOM LINE: Now 100% core position long ETH. Blocks were added between $12.90-13.30. I have a 50% short-term opportunities fund for situations like this (used on last bull run for ETH-see prior posts) and will likely buy more if ETH reaches 12.35 early today — will not buy more within 2 hours of todays closing price – more likely will reduce position if still red at that time.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.