Saturday July 23, 2016 6:30 AM
Since the ETH pattern I’m following is on a roll, in this post I’ll share what the probabilities say should happen over the next 24-48 hours.
ETH should have a breakeven or modest down day today. Price should not go below $13 (much–don’t get too exact on patterns!). Tomorrow ETH should drop below today’s low and then close green. This would be a bullish continuation pattern with a high probability of higher prices ahead.
Let me explain why I’m comfortable “going out on a limb here”.
Yesterday, ETH shot up right to the lower end of my July 8 post target of $15 on great volume. ETH also respected the patterns resistance area of resistance I mentioned yesterday at about $14.75 and is currently trading in the $14-$15 range deciding where it wants to go next.
How confident am I in this pattern? Well, I’m betting on it, if that’s an indicator. I remain 35% long ETH and would likely add more tomorrow if the pattern plays out.
What makes this a pattern a solid bet is that I have a clear exit plan if I’m wrong (which is certainly possible). If we close green today that’s bullish too and if we close below $13, I’ll likely reduce or exit my position until I see another clear buy signal.
Important final note on this forecast: ETH is at an important point right now, if ETH starts dropping here it could be the start of a hugely bearish pattern with lows well under $10. The higher probabilities are for more upside for ETH, but that could change in a big hurry. Time to watch closely, not get greedy and rely on the patterns.
As I noted on Twitter and in yesterday’s post, the patterns called for a drop to $635. BTC dropped hard (compared to the last few weeks) but only fell to around $640. Now BTC has moved as high as $658. This is bullish behavior, however, BTC still has some work to do for the probabilities to favor a big move to the upside, and $707 continues to be the top as the patterns predicted in my post of July 3
ETH Long 35% of my core position. Next few days could see changes here.
STEEM Long 50% of a small core position (about 20% of my ETH budget).
I went long STEEM around .0052 BTC to effectively increase my short position in BTC as I saw the drop coming. I also saw a short term bullish pattern for STEEM.
The shorting of BTC did not work–STEEM stayed flat (wtf?? There really needs to be a better way to short BTC against the USD -anybody know of one??) However the short term bullish pattern has played out with STEEM near .0060. I have a very tight stop on this trade now and will likely exit the position today.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.