Sunday July 17, 2016 6:00 AM
TFW you’re sure a big move is coming: the urge to dive in and take a large position is huge. You’re positive you know where things are headed, and God forbid you miss the bus and all those fat profits.
But, when you’re wrong (and you will be at some point, or more likely many points), the risks involved with big moves can produce results that can be devastating, so I fight against all urges to dive in head first and instead:
Don’t move till I see it.
It = A clear pattern with a high probability of success and a clear exit plan.
In one of the most extended patterns I’ve seen, BTC has been locked in a very tight range for weeks. These patterns usually indicate indecision among investors and often lead to huge moves when they break out of the range.
The downside target of 375-425 continues to have the higher probability longer term, but not by nearly as much as it did a week ago. In fact, a short term move to a $735 target is now more likely. This would break the downside pattern and muddy the water for BTC.
I continue to be flat BTC and as noted above “won’t move till I see it”
ETH continues to follow the roadmap laid out in my July 15 post with a target in the $11 range. ETH has traded as low as $11.19 but the pattern indicates it still has a higher probability of lower prices before moving up to my target of $15+. Let me note here there’s a real possibility (though smaller) it won’t go any lower before heading to $15+.
I am now 25% of my core position long ETH. I sold half my ETH position at $12 two days ago and feel that overwhelming urge buy it back immediately as I continue to see a probability of higher prices. But shorter term patterns still say we’re going lower so I will do my best to rely on what has worked which is:
Don’t move till I see it
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.