Time to trade ETH NOW. BTC on sidelines

tweet july 15

My tweet from about 5:30 this morning

Friday July 15, 2016  5:45 AM

Tl:dr I’ve already made significant moves in my ETH position and today will be a key day for my ETH trading strategy. Here are the details

My blog post title from yesterday is a great place to start:

ETH Running out of time BTC coiling

When a time cycle gets too long, as a trader it means to have an incredibly open mind and error to the side of being defensive. Here’s what the patterns say is happening now:

If you look at ETH longer term (days), the patterns show a strong probability of more upside with my $15+ target very much in sight.

But then I looked at the bigger ETH picture:

  • This morning as I scan the charts, the shorter-term patterns (hours) show a much higher probability of downside with a target in the 11 range (trading around $12 as I write this).
  • I also learned ETH is moving forward with its hard fork with a key date set for July 20. This is likely to create a lot of volatility over the next week or two.
  • And, as I tweeted yesterday  ETH needs to close today with a high above yesterday’s high or the entire upside pattern is in jeopardy. If we end the day at the short term target of $11, that would be well below yesterday’s high of $11.71.

I don’t want to be 50% long if that happens as the probability for upside to $15 on this move goes down significantly. Make sense?

SO – I immediately sold half my position at around $12 (sold in blocks, some above 12, some below). ETH is currently trading much higher (around $12.20). Should I have waited to see how much more I could make? No way. I can’t guess every move up or down. When a high probability pattern says sell, I sell, win or lose.

In this case, selling at $12 gave me a 15% gain in about a week. ETH could go straight to the moon from here – if it does, I missed out, but I still made money (a 15% return in a week!)

IMPORTANT: I would much rather make 15% gain than hope for 50+% gain and wind up with a 15-50% loss!

If I follow the patterns and base my trading decisions on the highest probabilities— I make money more often than not.

Does all this mean ETH is about to tank? No. As I said, the longer term patterns are still bullish for ETH which is why I’m staying 25% long here and depending on the patterns at the time we hit around $11, I will seriously consider buying a lot more ETH — at least back up to 50%

BTC Update

This space intentionally left blank.  

NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE.  Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions. 




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