Get back to me when BTC > $710 + ETH update

Volatility_cartoon

Friday July 8, 2016  6:45 AM

Bitcoin fell below $600 last night ($594) then bounced hard and is currently trading above $650. Was the nearly $100 drop a huge head fake and now we are off to the races on a big buill run for BTC?

The patterns (and trading volume) say no. Until BTC convincingly gets above it’s July 3 high of $707 there’s nothing indicating higher highs are on the way. My target remains the $375 – $425 range, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see huge swings along the way —

Especially with the Halving (Halfing? Halvening? Ghaddafi? Quaddafi?) due tomorrow and stories like this that are sure to show up in the coming days:

As Bitcoin Halving Approaches, 51% Attack Question Resurfaces

ETH Update

As I noted on twitter, patterns continued to look bullish for ETH so I added 5% more to my ETH position last night at 9.86.

I am now 35% of my core position LONG ETH.

I would have like to raised my position to 50% but couldn’t find a strong enough short term buy pattern to justify the risk.

Since last night, ETH has risen sharply (in the real world 10% is sharply) and is now trading around $10.75. The patterns indicate a moderate probability first target of $14 with a second target (lower probability of $17.35). I will buy more ETH if I see a strong buy pattern even at higher prices.

The latest DAO news and debate about the benefits and risks of a hardfork is still hanging over ETH’s head, and I think this will continue for some time even after a decision is made.  Better to trust the patterns than the news at this point and stay conservative in how much I put at risk.

Again, I don’t trust overnight stops in the crypto exchanges so I am using my trading philosophy outlined here:

June 18 post: How I’m Trading ETH / DAO / BTC NOW

NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE.  Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions. 

 

 

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