Wednesday July 6, 2016 7:00 AM
I trust my own trading system but that doesn’t mean I don’t search around to see what other traders are thinking and doing. Yesterday, it was hard to find anybody interested in buying ETH, and most of those were ETH and DAO holders who are well underwater. I saw several references to the “obvious” bearish pattern on the ETH charts.
I see it too. This pattern has a target of about $1 for ETH.
But even in the face of that deadly pattern, I’m holding my 30% long position in ETH and looking to buy more—soon. If yesterday’s close and today’s price action were just a little more bullish, I would already have added to my position.
Because there’s more than one pattern and indicator to base decisions on when predicting ETH’s (or anything else’s) next move!
My desire to buy more ETH doesn’t mean that bearish pattern won’t play out, and ETH can certainly crash straight to $1 or even lower.
But, my patterns and indicators say currently, there’s a much higher probability of more upside for ETH before the bearish pattern is most likely to play out– if it ever plays out.
In other words: I can be right being long ETH and make money even if that bearish pattern plays out.
And don’t forget ETH has not broken it’s intermediate term uptrend with a potential target of $36. I haven’t
Plus, more importantly, I have a clear exit strategy where my system tells me the odds have changed (= I’m wrong). Currently that’s a price below $7. With ETH selling for 10.49 as I type this, that’s too much downside risk to increase my position unless I see a clearly bullish pattern, which I don’t. But I do see other signs of bullishness, so I’m looking to buy more ETH if the opportunity presents itself.
Make sense? Hope so. I’ll provide more specific signs I’m looking for tomorrow and will update if any new trades are made.
BTC Update: The patterns say BTC needs to go up in a hurry here or the chances are more downside is ahead. Next couple of days should tell the story which you didn’t need me to predict as the halvening is just a few days away.
The patterns say odds still favor the downside for BTC, but not by much and I wouldn’t bet against BTC in the current set up.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.