Tuesday July 5, 2016 6:45 AM
As the hardfork drama unfolds, the panic cryptopatterns predicted for ETH has likely begun. With my first target of $10 hit, I’ve added 5% to my ETH position at around 9.80 (tried to get in at 9.65 but trade wouldn’t execute) and am now 30% long.
ETH hit my first target of $10 with increasing volume — that’s not a bullish sign! But the patterns said it had to happen before more upside.
In fact, here’s last week’s pattern-based prediction of panic and what I still think has a moderate probability of happening next:
As for ETH, I’m still 25% long (because you never know…ever) and am watching for a fast spike downward to $5 or even lower at which point I plan to be a buyer, likely to a 100% long position. I’ll have an exit stategy even at that low price and will share it if and when we get there.
So why buy more now if I see $5 (or lower) coming? In volatile markets, anything can happen and big moves are likely to happen fast. There is a pattern showing a moderate probability ETH could reverse to green today.
If ETH decides to reverse at this point in the cycle it would likely be on news that’s incredibly bullish. That’s worth increasing my risk 5% to me.
But, don’t kid yourself, ETH is still in serious trouble here and I’ll be holding back plenty of cash until the picture is far more clear, no matter how much upside I miss.
The patterns were also clear that ETH needed to test $10 again — and quite possibly $7 as I noted here:
Ether: More downside before meaningful upside with likely tests of $10 and even $7 coming…..
One new rumor that has to be taken seriously is that ETH trading will be halted if and when they try to implement a hard fork. It has little to do with patterns but it’s just as important that I consider my emotions in how much further I’m willing to invest in ETH realizing that I might not be able to trade that position for an extended period of time.
30% long ETH and watching like a hawk at this point for buying opportunities. I’ll update as trades are made
BTC update: as noted yesterday, closed green. Increases probability of more upside. Keeps me from shorting, but not going long here either.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.