Sunday, July 3, 2016 7:15 AM
So what do the BTC patterns say as of today?
Assuming today closes red for BTC, the intermediate term patterns and important indicators are showing there is a moderate probability that the top is in for BTC for this cycle and a meaningful drop in price has begun. This could be the beginning of the drop to my $375-425 target – though it’s not likely to go down in a straight line.
A good risk/reward trade I’m looking at would be to short BTC in the high $680’s with a stop in the $693-4 range. I’ll update if I enter any trades.
There are reasons to be skeptical of this top though:
- It’s a weekend – as I’ve posted, I don’t give 100% credibility to weekend patterns.
- Volume is still low — it needs to ramp up in the near term to confirm change in trend downward (doesn’t mean a big down moves cant happen first).
It would be easy to ignore today’s BTC charts and just wait for a big move on BTC as important news is likely coming soon. But I trade predictive patterns, not news.
The short message here is to watch the next few days very closely. If we close green today or get back above yesterday’s high of 707 for more than a day then this is a false alarm . However, today’s strong move down so far comes at a point in the cycle that could mean the top is in for BTC and it may be ready to move.
Still no position in BTC and 25% long in ETH.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.