Saturday June 25, 2016 6:30 AM
Why you should invest in BTC today:
- Strength over last few days
- Could easily break bearish pattern/roadmap it’s currently following exactly (covered in posts over last several days) if BTC can break $800 –with $1000 and a very buillish chart for longer term at that point.
- Brexit scaring the hell out of everyone – BTC is a logical alternative to other currencies and the most proven cryptocurrency
Why you should not invest (or short) BTC today:
- Pattern/roadmap for $375-425 target still very much in tact
- Strength over last few days but decreasing volume
- It’s hard to imagine there won’t be a “stick save” or some other event from the EU to keep hope alive that Brexit will somehow become a modified “Bremain” which could crush BTC
Why you should invest in ETH today:
- Current pattern looking more and more bullish – strong probability of higher prices if we can get above $16 as volume increases.
- Has held up incredibly well given the nightmare of The DAO
- A decent low priced alternative to other currencies for those scared of Brexit
- An annoucment that The DAO has somehow been rescued that the market trusts could send ETH to the moon.
Why you should not invest (or short) ETH today:
- Current news on The DAO – holy crap what a mess. It’s never a sign of strength when a bunch of millenials are writing philosophical treatises on the meaning of “fair”
- Price pattern looks good but volume looks weak
- Could crash at any moment if market decides DAO attacker is going to be allowed to keep “stolen” funds, or if curators decide to hard fork, or if no one believes in smart contracts anymore or if some new hot coin shows promise, or if….or if….
There’s more but that covers many keys so there’s your set up — place your bets.
Me? Watching closely and feel the patterns and some intangibles for ETH are bullish, but the risks and stress are not worth the rewards for me at this price beyond my already profitable 25% core position, even if it means missing out on huge gains on the other 75% I’d like to invest.
BTC is basically betting on a currently bearish pattern and betting against established governments at this point. Great upside if you’re right, but betting against the manipulations of governments has proven very difficult to profit from for very long. Maybe this time will be different? I can’t bet on that with confidence.
Patterns are powerful things, but so are intuition and common sense if you want to stay in the trading game long term.
NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE. Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions.