BTC – volatile path to drop $200 more

btc 4 hour 6 23

Thursday June 23, 2016  6:00 AM

Cash is king at the moment for intermediate term traders. Big moves have happened. More are likely on the way sooner rather than later.

Yesterday I was long BTC at 590 (25%) and again at 567.50 (25%) with a potential target of $670-700 based on shorter term multiple patterns and indicators. I sold both positions within hours of buying them at 600 (+2%) and 577 (+2%) due to tight trailing stops on both positions.

More importantly, the bearish patterns forming on the longer term charts showing a drop of another 200 points (target 375-425) would have cost me a good night’s sleep even on a modest position and no trade is worth that.

That doesn’t mean I don’t see the upside for BTC because the short-term patterns are still there. It just means the probabilities are higher BTC will drop significantly in the intermediate term and I don’t want to be long on a short-term trade when it does.

Of course I could stay in the trade with stops — if I trusted stops on the crypto exchanges – I don’t. So I’m out with a very small profit – and waiting for the next move on BTC.

Once again the news is full of reasons why BTC has already fallen $200 (Brexit) and why it will rebound soon (China – ETH’s demise, etc). While all the news can be true, I see plenty of evidence of more downside for BTC — maybe a lot more, and I want no part of until it can prove it will beat the odds –

Note: BTC did defeat a bearish pattern recently when it shot from 450 or so to nearly 800, so it could certainly happen again.  (See prior posts for the play by play on that one if interested).Even with good upside staring me in the face,  I’m not willing to gamble here, the stakes are simply too high.

A possible path that is supported by the patterns for BTC is roughly

600-700  then

700  down to 400

Of course this road map could be completely wrong. But, add to the BTC patterns ETH showing signs of bullishness in the coming days and weeks (after more downside short term – I’m still 25% long ETH) and it would not shock me if the entire BTC path happens in the next few days/weeks.

NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE.  Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions. 

 

 

 

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