BTC failed reversal, ETH reversal on deck

eth 6 21 chart

Tuesday June 21, 2016 5:15 PM

If you traded BTC based on my post yesterday you made a lot of money, even though my highest probability pattern did not deliver = I was wrong.

I indicated to buy aroudn 635 when BTC was trading over 675 — BTC low was around 639 —

I said BTC should reverse to above 720 — BTC reached 705 or so after bottoming at 635 — that’s a gain of 70 pts–all happened in about an hour or two!

Then BTC decided to drop back below 700 and is currently trading at 677 — even if you would have held you’d still have a nice gain (I would have set a stop at 685-690 once BTC cleared 700).

That’s some quality very short term targets. However, I made exactly zero trading BTC. You have to have your trading strategy clearly defined and rely on your system, and for now, I am looking for intermediate term trades, not very short term trades.

What’s more important to my trading efforts is the fact BTC fell below its support on high volume — a bearish sign. Doesn’t mean it can’t go right back up to new highs–let’s be clear about that. Just means the probabilities are currently higher that we’ll see more downside with a very near term target at $585– intermediate term target 375-425. I’m looking to buy BTC at that point but will see what the patterns say at that time.

I am still holding my 25ish% position long in ETH and ETH is moving up quite a bit (it hit $14 in the last few hours).  Volume is unimpressive thus far and volume usually accompanies big moves (see ETH crash of a few days ago).  However, volume aside, if we close above yesterday’s high then the odds increase that we might be starting a more meaningful move up.

I don’t think we’ll close higher on ETH today for 2 main reasons:

  1. The down move hasn’t lasted for enough time. It’s possible we have a 5 day down cycle, but not highly probable given the uncertaintly surrounding ETH.
  2. Indicators and patterns show a higher probability that ETH will test below $10 again and might even want to test those lows at $7 or so.

Add to those two factors the pattern currently developing on ETH today — it’s somewhat similar to BTC yesterday.  We are above yesterday’s high– this early in a down cycle the most likely pattern in a reversal below yesterday’s high–likely to a red close, indicating more downside.

As of this minute ETH is a better very short term short than it is a buy. Longer term, the patterns remain buillish so I’m simply holding on to my 25% of my core position and waiting for clean entries to increase that position.

Bottom line is I see a greater chance of ETH and BTC both going lower than any meaningful upside over the next few days–I’m building my trading plan on these higher probabilities.

With all of the above in mind — things are definitely sketchy in the cryptocurrency community right now so I am still in the “anything can happen mode” I wrote about in detail a few days ago.  I will update as patterns become more clear — Let me close by adding this is a good time to keep a close eye on all markets as big moves are happening and more could be coming soon.

NOTE: NOTHING IN MY POSTS IS INTENDED TO BE TRADING ADVICE.  Please do not base your trades on any information presented in the materials on this blog as it is for information and entertainment purposes only. You are 100% responsible for your own trading decisions. 

 

 

 

 

 

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