How 6/23 Brexit vote effects ETH / DAO / BTC

brexit

Sunday June 19, 2016 7:00 AM

PANIC!! The nightmare DAO crisis is expected to last at least 27 days while everything is sorted out before “The Attacker” has access to his ill gotten (or hard earned) gains from his newly hatched baby DAO. 27 days of waiting, hoping, wondering, stressing…..

On Thursday, June 23, 2016 Great Britain will vote on exiting (aka Brexit) the European Union (EU) after four decades of participation.

For the last month or so, stock markets and currency exchanges around the world have become increasingly volatile, as investors become increasingly aware that no one knows exactly what might happen if Britain decides to leave the EU.

Is Brexit the reason for the volatility?  Does news like this create uncertainty and panic and ramp up volatility in markets?

The International Monetary Fund on Friday issued one of the most dire forecasts to date, calling the impact of Britain’s departure from the European Union “negative and substantial.” The fund predicted that a Brexit could reduce economic growth by up to 5.6 percent over the next three years in its worst-case scenario…..

From Washington Post 6/18/2016

It does and it doesn’t. Seems there’s a “crisis de jour” that can create weeks or months of volatility in stock and currency markets, only to fade into memory without really mattering much in the big picture.

Remember Greece? Multiple acts of terrorism? Plagues and Illnesses? Other countries financial crises? And in the Crypotcurrency world we have Mt. Gox and other hacking crises? I can’t recall all the details because they are all noise to me but rest assured there are dozens more of these “scares” . The world was supposed to end in every case–but, so far, while many traders lost tons of money on each scare, we’re still here.

That doesn’t mean some of these crises aren’t very real, or that they won’t come back to haunt us in the future. When you (or anyone) can predict with certainty which ones are the real crises that will destroy the markets please let me know. Meanwhile, I’ll be busy trading.

In other words: crises aren’t a very good–translated = BAD– way to make trading decisions.

BREXIT and The DAO – Are they related?

While Brexit is a currency crisis that is sure in some way to effect cryptocurrencies at some point, the relationship between Brexit, ETH and The DAO currently has a different, much stronger relationship.

Over the last 2 days, The DAO hack has thrown ETH into a huge crisis that has experts from all sides assuring us that the sky is falling

On The DAO — “a failed experiment that is now dead”

On ETH — “If they issue a hard fork, ETH is doomed”

On all cryptocurrencies — “in it’s infancy, what happens next could bring down the entire market”

PANIC!! The nightmare DAO crisis is expected to last at least 27 days while everything is sorted out before “The Attacker” has access to his ill gotten (or hard earned) gains. 27 days of waiting, hoping, wondering, stressing…..

Whatever.  History tells us that there’s far more to a crisis story than meets the eye. 

I strongly believe if you want to be successful trading stocks, cryptocurrencies or any security you’d do well to look past today’s news to a trading philosophy you believe in that allows you to have confidence in your decisions and win more than you lose.

For me, that’s reading the PRICE AND TIME patterns of whatever I’m trading and focusing on a long-term trading plan that is carefully managed, flexible enough to allow me to react when I am wrong, and bulletproof from financial ruin.

This week (and the next 30 days –always the case with a high quality crisis) will offer very interesting news on Brexit, ETH, DAO and Cryptocurrencies. My plan and my very open mind are both ready.

TRADING UPDATE – No changes to positions from yesterday.

 

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