Thursday June 16, 2016 6:30 AM
ETH has hit 19.88 this morning which creates a high probability it will go over $20.
But it doesn’t have to.
I took another 5% off my position and plan to reduce my ETH position to 25% of my core position as we go up or if we fall below 18.50.
The gain on this latest sale is approximately 85%. Overall I’m up about 60% since I started trading cryptocurrency about a month ago (and started this blog)
I continue to reduce my position while at the same time announcing my next upside target for ETH
This is what the patterns suggest ETH will reach in the intermediate term.
So, if I believe ETH is likely to double over time here, why not buy more instead of phasing out my core position down to 25% (or even lower).
Because I have no idea of the path that ETH will take to get to $36 and cannot speculate with any confidence when it will see $36.
I never forget there’s a real possibility it will NEVER see $36!
I want to profit from my reading of the ETH patterns which I see as incredibly bullish, but if I try to chase every dollar — it’s very likely I will panic on the day they decide to drop back to the $10-15 range based on some “news” about a glitch in ETH or who knows what.
It’s my goal to play the probabilities at all times and I’m more likely to make more money holding a position I am CONFIDENT in rather than trying to make the most money.
I could have made a lot more money holding my entire position in ETH–I would be up well over 100% in fact — focusing on that possibility is a recipe for disaster.
I AM UP 60% IN A MONTH without being down in my position more than a few dollars for a few days. I have a lot of free cash and am building a clear plan to protect it while participating in future ETH, BTC and other cryptocurrency trades.
I will do all I can to stay in the game for the long haul — even if it means missing the ETH move from $20 to $1000 that I see many traders screaming about.
As for BTC – I saw a small probability that it could reach $750 and indeed it has. As I noted I am out of BTC entirely since $683. It’s very tempting to short BTC in the near term, but price and volume continue to confirm that this move is not one you want to short. Patterns suggest it’s not a move you want to chase either.
I’m continuing to watch patterns and also see a few other clues that might help with more clear direction in the near term for both ETH and BTC. I share those clues in next couple of days.
As for The DAO, it needs time to develop patterns to determine probabilities so I won’t be commenting on it often unless something meaningful happens.