Thursday June 9, 2016 10:00 PM
I recently built about 150% of my core position in ETH at an average price of around 13.75. I have begun selling the entire additional 50% position (phasing out in several lots) at an average price of $14.30 this evening.
I’ll wait till tomorrow when volumes pick up to determine when to sell the rest of the additional 50% position and I’ll drop back to my core position for now.
The pattern for more upside is taking too long and this increases the probability for more downside so it makes sense to reduce my holdings and watch for further patterns to develop.
I’d say there’s now a 50/50 chance I will exit a significant portion of my core position as well, but, I’d like a more clear bearish pattern before I reduce my holdings any further.
Emotionally, I’d really like to stay 150% or more invested in ETH as I see great long term upside–but I want to trade based on the probabilities provided by the patterns, not what I think should happen. I will certainly look to readd but it will take a clear pattern to do so.
I am making a decent profit on the sale of my recent additions of ETH considering I’ve only held them a week or two, but it would be the right thing to sell at a loss if I had to as I’m trying to respect probabilities, and right now, downside for ETH becomes more likely every day.
Patterns still suggest probabilities are in favor of BTC over $600 before falling below $550 (currently at $573) but I am selling ETH back into US $ as I feel BTC is too far in its latest upward cycle to chase additional upside at this time–I will reevaluate BTC if and when a pull back occurs.
Nothing new to report on The DAO, it moved up a bit in relation to ETH but is still lagging and not showing any volatility at this point.