June 4 2016 6:45 AM
Note — From this post forward all prices are in USD unless specifically noted
My Bitcoin (BTC) target of 575 on my roadmap of my prior post was exceeded with a current high of around 592. I need to study longer term BTC pattern charts (which are not that easy to find) to see what a new target might be but with the speed and volume of this uptrend, it’s hard to believe we won’t be seeing BTC testing 625 in the near future.
I sold 20% of my small BTC position at 575 (gain of over $100 per BTC in a couple of weeks!)– converted to ETH at around 13.50 at that time, because BTC seemed to be very volatile at 575 and the patterns as well as some indicators showed a moderate probability that the upmove was stalling for BTC. Again, the incredible momentum of BTC kept me in 80% of this modest position. I’ll assess further sales of my BTC holdings again at either 625 range or if BTC wants to go back and test $550 range.
I will freely admit to overvaluing the inverse correlation of BTC and ETH in my roadmap projections, however, the fact that ETH has held up so well in the face of BTC’s meteoric rise is a very positive sign for ETH, and good for me as well given I am bullish on ETH in the intermediate term.
Despite being wrong about the BTC target on my roadmap, I still see a moderate probability that the up ETH/down BTC path could occur soon. The indicators I follow make a correction for BTC while ETH goes up to the target of 17.50-20 even more likely than my first target for BTC at 575. I find that fast strong moves tend to overshoot targets AND ALSO LIMIT TARGETS FOR THE NEXT MOVE (This would mean I’ll likely adjust my BTC target of $385 higher once I study the patterns).
Bottom line, I am still staying with the basic roadmap of ETH going up and BTC correcting in the near future (days/weeks) and will plan to update with more specific price targets after some study.