June 4 2016 7:33 AM
I’ve mentioned before that dealing with multiple pricings in multiple currencies can be a challenge for pattern analysis.
I’ve relied heavily on the ETH/BTC charts for most of the targets presented to date, and look to the ETH/USD charts for confirmation.
The recent price spike in BTC might be changing all that as the two charts now have very different patterns.
There is currently an imporant pattern on the ETH/USD chart that does not show up on the ETH/BTC chart. The pattern shows a high probability of meaningful upside for ETH NOW.
NOW does not mean weeks, it means DAYS. Just as importantly when this pattern is completed (or if it fails), it usually means a meaningful correction in price. For example, ETH price should move up towards the 17.50 target and then will likely reverse from there down to say $12.50 (i’ll know downside target better once pattern completes)
This is a similar pattern I used to call ETH’s last large price rise from about 9.75 to over 14. I have yet to realize any profit from that call because I still see high probability of 17.50 – 20 on this move.
Well, this move needs to start in the next few days or I MUST accept that the probabilities are no longer in my favor and reduce my ETH position AT LEAST down to my core position and likely further. Always play the probabilities, never what you think or WISH should happen!
I’ll be watching the price action in ETH/USD very closely in the next few days and will update if/when I change my position.
My prior posts on the roadmap are still very much in play for the next several days-but things need to start happening asap or my roadmap will definitely change as well.